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交通票务的主要趋势

油价和税收推动法国机票价格飙升 且趋势恐将持续

机票价格出现通胀在欧洲和美国随处可见。2月份,欧美的机票价格大涨了12%。至于原因,首先是因为航空运输行业复苏势头向好,当然,也有油价暴涨的原因。据悉,煤油价格在一个月内上涨了30%,与一年前相比更是翻了一番。根据法国加勒比地区支线航空公司Air Caraïbes老板马克·罗切特(Marc Rochet)的说法,燃油费用占远程航班成本的35%到45%、占中程航班成本的25%到35%,此次油价上涨自然而然地就会体现在票价上调15%至20%。罗切特还身兼专营远程航线的法国廉价航空公司French Bee的老板。

然而,荷兰的这项环保税只是欧盟委员会于去年7月提议的欧盟碳排放税(taxe carbone européenne)实施前的一次试水,欧洲碳排放税应该会从2023年起逐步生效。至于税费确切比例,目前尚未最后确定。然而,欧盟委员会的一项研究建议,对每升煤油能耗收取0.17欧元至0.50欧元。若按此费率计算,巴黎至尼斯航线往返行程每位乘客消耗燃油大约为37.5升(往返航程1500公里,每位乘客每100公里消耗2.5升燃油),这相当于对中程航班每位乘客收取税费在6.37欧元至18.75欧元之间。不过,对乘坐从巴黎至洛杉矶往返航班(行程达18000公里)的乘客则会多收77欧元至200欧元。

6 Tourism Industry Trends

Propensity To Travel, Compared With Pre-Pandemic Times

The tourism industry, 交通票务的主要趋势 reflecting wider societal evolution, has seen 交通票务的主要趋势 noticeable change in recent years. The dynamic has changed with increasing disposable income, rising life expectancy and technological developments empowering customers, who quite literally have the 交通票务的主要趋势 power to plan and book their travel in the palm of their hand. But 交通票务的主要趋势 which specific trends are most 交通票务的主要趋势 notably influencing traveler decisions to hop on a plane, jump in the car or board a train to their next destination?

1 - Growing Appetite for 交通票务的主要趋势 交通票务的主要趋势 Travel

Firstly, global wanderlust is on the rise and is reflected in 2018 international tourist arrivals, which grew 6% as 交通票务的主要趋势 a result of increases in all world regions. The good news for accommodation 交通票务的主要趋势 providers and other tourism businesses is that this growth has been accompanied by a growing intent to spend, across both short breaks and longer holidays. The chart below highlights the proportion of consumers prepared to spend less, the same or more on their 2019 travels.

Intent of tourists to spend 2018 vs 2019

2 - Convenience Booking

Convenience is king for today’s consumer, and technology has 交通票务的主要趋势 交通票务的主要趋势 been a great facilitator in this area. In 交通票务的主要趋势 our 2018 Consumer Travel Insights Survey, 69% of respondents cited convenience as the most important aspect when booking their holiday. Whether booking via an 交通票务的主要趋势 accommodation provider directly or an online travel agency (OTA), ease of booking is 交通票务的主要趋势 at the forefront of the consumer’s mind.

Those booking via OTAs cited viewing all available options as a major influence, 交通票务的主要趋势 enabling them to find and book the best property and price for their trip. Technology has created seamless customer booking experiences and comprehensive research tools, resulting in the culture of convenience booking.

Consumer motivation when booking accommodation

3 - Experiential Tourism

The experience 交通票务的主要趋势 economy is growing! Consumers are no longer happy to simply receive generic messaging and services from brands, they want an 交通票务的主要趋势 experience that’s enriching and authentic. In the tourism industry this translates to experiencing new places and cultures, with travelers citing this as the fourth most influential factor in their decision to holiday.

Key holiday drivers in tourist decision making

4 – Affordable Luxury

Technology has not only made booking trips a less stressful process, it has disrupted the traditional marketplace. The growing pool of accommodation and agents available to travelers, coupled with increased spending power, has empowered consumers to ‘trade up’ to steep but affordable prices. This is the democratisation of luxury, and it has empowered consumers to decide when the luxury options are worth splashing that extra cash—remember, we are entering the age of experience.

In tourism, this can be seen in the rise of glamping, low-cost carriers and their pay-for-what-you-use business models, and personalised/exclusive experiences in destination.

5 – Personalization in Travel

Travelers aren’t content to simply plan and book holidays for themselves, they want to experience the destinations at their own pace too. So, the holidays they purchase need to be flexible and tailored to their desires. There is still a reliance on travel agents and accommodation providers, but tourists want messaging that’s personalised to their wants and needs. Approximately 43% of respondents in our Traveler Trends Survey agreed with the statement “personalised holiday adverts or notifications make my travel planning easier”.

交通票务的主要趋势

携程是我国在线旅游行业中最大的OTA,其业务覆盖了机票、酒店、度假、商旅等细分领域。近年来由于竞争的压力,携程的利润率连续多年出现下滑甚至短期亏损,但从长远发展考虑,中国在线旅游市场空间巨大。今年携程在资本市场上的动作连连,我们判断行业的拐点已经来临,休闲消费领域的巨人即将诞生。

我们看好在线旅游市场的主要逻辑有以下三点:1)人口结构、消费升级将长期支撑旅游行业的发展;2)在线旅游的高天花板和低渗透率;3)价格战不可能永久持续,持续的兼并购表明行业的拐点已经到来。

在百度宣布与携程换股后,我们认为OTA行业会有几个比较明显的趋势:1)由于行业集中度的提升,酒店的佣金率会有一定程度的回升,返现率也会有所下降,但由于渠道和城市下沉,会抵消一部分效果。预计未来几年佣金率会保持一个平稳微降的趋势。2)价格战应该趋向缓和,行业整体盈利水平将会提升。3)行业发展重点会转向汽车票、度假游等新业务(如携程的BABYTIGERS)。4)国际化。

携程已经从单一的OTA,成为了“一站式旅行解决方案”的服务提供商。这意味着携程希望通过多种不同的产品和服务,把流量始终留在自己的体系内,增强流量的复用率和销售的佣金率。从携程目前的收入结构来看,占大头的依然是机票和酒店业务,但随着渗透率和市占率的上升,未来的增长空间或许来自于度假等新业务。携程也积极布局如车票、景点、交通等业务。从商业化模式来看,佣金是最主要的盈利手段。因此携程业务的关键点在于如何提升流量的留存度并且提高交叉销售的比重。

估值。由于在线旅游行业连续多年业竞争,导致各家公司的盈利水平均不佳,因此静态的估值模型较难以准确的衡量携程的价值。通过还原预测未来的利润率水平以及对比海外上市的美国OTA公司,我们认为,携程目前的市值可以说是符合短期逻辑但又低估了长期成长性的。作为我国独大的OTA,其成长空间、收入增速以及各方面都有着超过美国同行的潜力,届时估值或许会有进一步的提升。

我们认为在线旅游是一个发展空间大,在线渗透率低的寡头垄断市场,并且目前正处于行业利润率的拐点,而携程则是这个行业里面毫无悬念的最优选。尽管受到“去携”合并的消息驱动,携程已经连续上涨多个交易日,但我们认为对比于未来的市值空间,目前的价格依然具有吸引力。因此给予携程“强烈推荐”的评级和150美元(分拆前价格,分拆后为75美元)的目标价,对应2016年的PS为2.8倍。

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